Global Trend of Covid-19: A Profile

Dr. Keshab Chandra Mandal, Ph. D.

Introduction

The epidemic of coronavirus has already affected 210 countries and territories around the world. Unlike previous man-made wars or nature-made viruses Covid-19 has, for the first time, threatened entire population irrespective of region, sex, age or socio-economic condition of the of the world either to kill or down in quarantine or lock them down into the small periphery of their homes. The entire world is now reeling under the threat of this deadly virus, because globally as of 2:00am CEST, 25 April 2020, there have been 2,719,897 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 187,705 deaths.¹ 

At present global population is 7.79 billion.² Out of this world population, sixty-one per cent lives in Asia (4.7 billion), 17 per cent in Africa (1.3 billion), 10 per cent in Europe (750 million), 8 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean (650 million), and the remaining 5 per cent in Northern America (370 million) and Oceania (43 million). China (1.44 billion) and India (1.39 billion) remain the two largest countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, representing 19 and 18 per cent of the world’s population, respectively.³ 

Some Diseases and Epidemics

The world has so far witnessed various diseases such as malaria, dengue, measles, meningitis, influenza, diarrhea, typhoid, hepatitis A & E, HIV/AIDS etc. Among some natural disasters that have turned human lives and environment upside down are Tsunami, floods, draught, earthquake, hurricane cyclone and volcanic eruptions.⁴ An estimate of Worldometer⁵ highlights that, “Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu. SARS (November 2002 to July 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, and resulted in 8,096 people infected with 774 deaths (fatality rate of 9.6%). MERS (in 2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (fatality rate of 34.4%). However, a few more epidemics can be discussed hereunder in short. 

Ebola Outbreaks

Ebola virus disease (EVD), formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a rare but severe, often fatal illness in humans. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission. There have been a series of significant Ebola virus disease outbreaks recently, most notably in West Africa from 2014–2015 and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) starting in 2018.

African affected countries have been grappling with the world’s largest Ebola epidemic on record. The 2018-2019 outbreak in eastern DRC has been highly complex, with insecurity adversely affecting public health response activities. The World Health Organization has deployed hundreds of staff on the ground supporting the Government-led response together with national and international partners.⁶ In the Ebola epidemic, in more than 21 months from the first confirmed case recorded on 23 March 2014, 11,315 people have been reported as having died from the disease in six countries; Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, the US and Mali. The total number of reported cases is about 28,637.⁷

 

Diphtheria

In 2018 and 2019,Colombia, Haiti, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela have reported confirmed cases of diphtheria. In 2020, Haiti and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela have reported confirmed cases. In Haiti, between epidemiological week (EW) 32 of 2014 and EW 8 of 2020, there were 1,002 probable cases reported, including 126 deaths; of the total cases, 334 were confirmed (325laboratory-confirmedand 9 by epidemiological link). In 2019, among the 195 probable cases, 55 cases and 12 deaths were laboratory-confirmed. The case-fatality rate among cases confirmed by laboratory or epidemiological link was 23% in 2015, 40% in 2016, 6% in 2017,14% in 2018, and 22% in 2019.⁸ Apart from the above a few natural disasters in last 100 years that have caused deaths and losses to human society can be succinctly summarized hereunder. 

Table: 1 Natural Disasters in Last 100 years

Natural Disaster
Year	Name of the Disaster	Nature and consequence of the Disaster
1918	"Spanish flu" H1N1 Pandemic*	The most devastating flu pandemic in modern times, killing more than 500,000 people in the United States, and some 50 million people worldwide. Somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the global population was ill.
1957-58	"Spanish flu" H1N1 Pandemic	The most devastating flu pandemic in modern times, killing more than 500,000 people in the United States, and some 50 million people worldwide. Somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the global population was ill. Some people who felt well in the morning became sick by noon and were dead by nightfall. Those who did not succumb to the disease within the first few days often died of complications from the flu (such as pneumonia) caused by bacteria. Rather than just preying on the very young and old, as seasonal flus typically do, this one killed many healthy young adults, too: Mortality was highest among adults 20 to 50 years old.
1968-69	Hong Kong flu" H3N2 Pandemic	First detected in Hong Kong, this virus caused roughly 34,000 deaths in the United States during the 1968-69 season. H3N2 viruses still circulate today. Those over the age of 65 were most likely to die. The virus was similar to the 1957-58 Asian flu, so some people may have had some level of immunity.
1977	"Russian flu" H1N1 Infects Humans	Isolated in northern China, this virus was similar to the virus that spread before 1957. For this reason, individuals born before 1957 were generally protected, however children and young adults born after that year were not because they had no prior immunity. By January 1978, the virus had spread around the world, including the United States. Because illness occurred primarily in children, this event was not considered a true pandemic. Vaccine containing this virus was not produced in time for the 1977-78 season, but the virus was included in the 1978-79 vaccine.
1997	H5N1 Infects Humans	The first time an influenza virus was found to be transmitted directly from birds to people, with infections linked to exposure to poultry markets. Six people in Hong Kong died. This virus was different because it moved directly from chickens to people, rather than having been altered by infecting pigs as an intermediate host. In addition, many of the most severe illnesses occurred in young adults similar to illnesses caused by the 1918 Spanish flu virus.
1999	H9N2 Infects Humans	Appeared for the first time in humans. It caused illness in two children in Hong Kong, with poultry being the probable source.
2002	H7N2 Infects Humans	Evidence of infection is found in one person in Virginia following a poultry outbreak.
2003	Multiple Events (Appearance of new influenza strains in humans)	H5N1: Caused two Hong Kong family members to be hospitalized after a visit to China, killing one of them, a 33-year-old man. (A third family member died while in China of an undiagnosed respiratory illness.) H7N7: In the first reported cases of this strain in humans, 89 people in the Netherlands, most of whom were poultry workers, became ill with eye infections or flu-like symptoms. A veterinarian who visited one of the affected poultry farms died. H7N2: Caused a person to be hospitalized in New York. H9N2: Caused illness in one child in Hong Kong.
2004	Multiple Events (Appearance of new influenza strains in humans) H5N1:	So-called Avian Flu causes illness in 47 people in Thailand and Vietnam, 34 of whom died. Researchers are especially concerned because this flu strain, which is quite deadly, is becoming endemic in Asia. H7N3: Is reported for the first time in humans. The strain caused illness in two poultry workers in Canada. H10N7: Is reported for the first time in humans. It caused illness in two infants in Egypt. One child’s father is a poultry merchant.
2005	H5N1"Avian Flu" Fears Rise	H5N1"Avian Flu" Fears Rise The first case of human infection with H5N1 for the year arises in Cambodia in February. By May, WHO reports four Cambodian cases, all fatal. Indonesia reports its first case, which is fatal, in July. Over the next three months, seven cases of laboratory-confirmed H5N1 infection in Indonesia, and 4 deaths, occur. On Dec. 30, WHO reports a cumulative total of 142 laboratory-confirmed cases of H5N1 infection worldwide, all in Asia, with 74 deaths. Asian countries in which human infection with H5N1 has been detected: Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and China.
2006	2006: H5N1 "Avian Flu" Spreads	In early January, two human cases of H5N1 infection, both fatal, are reported in rural areas of Eastern Turkey. Also in January, China reports new cases of H5N1 infection. As of Jan. 25, China reports a total of 10 cases, with seven deaths. On Jan. 30, Iraq reports its first case of human H5N1 infection, which was fatal, to the WHO. In March, the WHO confirmed seven cases of human H5N1 infection, and five deaths, in Azerbaijan. In April, WHO confirmed four cases of human H5N1 infection, and two fatalities, in Egypt. In May, the WHO confirmed a case of human H5N1 infection in the African nation of Djibouti. This was the first confirmed case in sub-Saharan Africa.
2007	H5N1 "Avian Flu" Still No Pandemic	In February, the WHO confirmed the first human deaths from H5N1 infection in the African nation of Nigeria and in Lao People's Democratic Republic.
2009	H1N1 "Swine Flu" Infects Humans	A new H1N1 virus containing swine, avian and human genes emerges in the United States, Mexico and Canada. As of April 29, nine countries have officially reported 148 cases of this "swine flu," with 91 lab-confirmed cases in the United States and one death. Mexico has reported 26 lab-confirmed human cases, and seven deaths. Lab-confirmed cases, but not deaths, are also reported in Austria, Canada, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom. The World Health Organization issues a "phase 5" alert on the outbreak, signaling that a pandemic is imminent.

Source: ‘Lessons Found in History of Flu Pandemics,’ Live Science, New York, April 30, 2009.

How the Coronavirus was Advancing and Taking Lives of Innocent Persons

The first confirmed coronavirus case was found on 8 January 2020 at Wuhan, China. After 10 days it was just 66 with daily increase of 18 cases. After three weeks since its first outbreak on 1^st February the figure of confirmed cases rose to 11962, while a month later the numbers of affected persons were increased to 34,899, and the rate of daily increase was only 3413. It was intended to see the advancement of the virus in the second month after its first appearance. On March 6 it crossed one lakh confirmed cases and, it was painfully observed that on the 8th March when the world celebrates the International Women’s Day, Covid-19 attacked 1,08,994 persons in the world, and took away 3784 innocent persons. The demon-like coronavirus gradually started to take a dreadful shape from the middle of March when the figure reached at 1,65,201 with daily increase of 12,472 persons (15, March 2020), while total death toll was 6452. Again after a fortnight the virus began to take a dangerous turn and number of infected persons rose to 8,27,404 on 1^st April with daily increase of 72471 cases. It is learnt from the website of World Health Organization⁹ that on the April Fool’s day Covid-19 had befooled the world by taking away 40,712 fresh lives. 

Again when it is closely looked into the data of World Health Organization, we cannot but embarrassed with the serpentine advancement of the deadliest virus world has ever witnessed in last one hundred years after the Spanish Flu in 1918. On the third month of its appearance (8.4.2020) on April 8, daily confirmed cases increased to 73,849 from merely 3931 one month ago. However, total confirmed cases reached to 13,56,870 persons with a death rate of 5.8 per cent (79,384 persons). In the middle of April (15^th April) total infection cases again rose to 19,18,109 with daily increase of 69,727 persons, and the total death cases crossed to one lakh and it stood at 1.23 lakh which is an increase of 6.4 per cent of total death. And as per data of World Health Organization, dated 25.04.2020, 12.04 a.m. total death cases again increased to 1,87,705 persons, and total infected persons crossed 2.7 million. 

      Table: 2  Progress Report of Covid-19 – A Global Overview

Date	Total No. of Confirmed Cases	Daily Increase Rate of Confirmed cases	Total No. of Deaths	% of Death
08.01.2020	1	-	0	0.0
18.01.2020	66	18	2	3.0
01.02.2020	11,962	2,115	259	2.1
08.02.2020	34,899	3,413	724	2.0
08.03.2020	1,08,994	3,931	3,784	3.4
15.03.2020	1,65,201	12,472	6,452	3.9
01.04.2020	8,27,404	72,471	40,712	4.9
08.04.2020	13,56,870	73,849	79,384	5.8
15.04.2020	19,18,109	69,727	1,23,126	6.4
24.04.2020	26,26,321	76,689	1,81,938	6.9
25.04.2020	27,19,897	93,566	1,87,705	6.9

Source: World Health Organization, https://covid19.who.int/ accessed on 25.4.2020

25 April (2020) is observed as World Malaria Day. This year in the lead-up to the World Malaria Day, countries across the globe are in the throes of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases of the novel coronavirus in malaria-affected countries currently represent only a small proportion of the global total, the situation is evolving rapidly. WHO underlines the critical importance of sustaining efforts to prevent, detect and treat malaria, using best practices to protect health workers and communities from COVID-19 infection. This year the theme of WHO on prevention of malaria is “Zero malaria starts with me.” It is a grassroots campaign that aims to keep malaria high on the political agenda, mobilize additional resources, and empower communities to take ownership of malaria prevention and care. 

Between 2000 and 2014, the number of malaria-related deaths fell by 40% worldwide, from an estimated 743000 to 446000. According to WHO’s World Malaria Report 2019, there were no global gains in reducing new infections over the period 2014 to 2018. And early as many people died from malaria in 2018 as the year before. Though the disease in the wane, still last year, i.e. in 2019 at least 80 countries reported about the malaria.¹⁰

 

Conclusion

From the above discussion it comes to light that the world has witnessed several natural disasters and diseases. But the devastation and losses incurred by Spanish flu of 1918 was the biggest challenge before the human society that killed more than 500,000 people in the United States alone, and some 50 million people worldwide. Moreover, between 20 to 40 per cent of the global population was ill because of the Spanish flu. Similarly the coronavirus is also directly infecting people across the globe irrespective of sex, color, age or region; causing complete shutdown of trade and business; making millions of people jobless, parentless and homeless; breaking economy of hundreds of countries and above all transforming entire social and political relations between and with the countries in the world. This will build a complete new and broken world after the end of this epidemic. 

References:

1.      WHO, ‘coronavirus (COVID-19), https://covid19.who.int/ accessed on 25.04.2020.

2.      The United Nations, ‘Our growing population’, https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/population/index.html accessed on 25.04.2020.

3.      World Population Prospects 2019.

4.      World Health Organization, ‘Outbreaks and Natural Disasters – Myths and Reality’, Disease Control in Humanitarian Emergencies (DCE) 1 April 2009.

5.      Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ accessed on 25.4.2020.

6.      World Health Organization, European Regional Office website, http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/ebola-outbreaks retrieved on 12.4.2020.

7.       www.bbc.com.

8.      Pan American Health Organization (PAHO and WHO), 3^rd March 2020 https://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_docman&view=download&category_slug=diphtheria-8968&alias=51821-3-march-2020-diphtheria-epidemiological-update-1&Itemid=270&lang=en accessed on 16.4.2020.

9.      WHO,  https://covid19.who.int/ accessed on 24.04.2020.

10.  WHO, World Malaria Day, who.net. accessed on 25.04.2020.